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Option Update: India technology services firms' volatility flat (INFY, SAY, WIT)

Infosys (NASDAQ: INFY), a technology services firm based in India, closed at $40.80 Tuesday. INFY chief executive said: "We are not seeing any trends towards driving prices downwards. There is (however) uncertainty about when the macro-environment will turn around" Down Jones. INFY overall option implied volatility of 43 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.

Satyam Computer Services (NYSE: SAY), a technology solution provider based in India, closed at $21.91 Tuesday. SAY overall option implied volatility of 53 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.

Wipro Ltd (NYSE: WIT), a technology services company based in India, closed at $11.60 Tuesday. Goldman Sachs raised its rating to Neutral from Buy on August 19. WIT overall option implied volatility of 50 is near its 26-week average of 47, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Saks (SKS) tumbles on Q2 losses

SKS logoSaks (NYSE: SKS - option chain) shares are falling today after the company reported second-quarter losses of $31.7 million, or $0.23 a share, this morning, less than analysts' estimates of -0.17. The company also forecast lower operating margins. If high-end retailers are hurting, then there is definitely some behavior of the average American consumer that is changing as well. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on SKS.

This morning, SKS opened at $10.60. So far today the stock has hit a low of $9.60 and a high of $10.61. As of 12:10, SKS is trading at $9.92, down $1.30 (-11.6%). The chart for SKS looks neutral while S&P gives SKS a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bear-call credit spread above the $12.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in three months as long as SKS is below $12.50 at November expiration. Saks would have to rise by more than 26% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

SKS hasn't been above $120 since late June and has shown resistance around $12 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in SKS.

Option Update: GM & Ford volatility elevated; Honda, Daimler & Toyota flat

Daimler AG (NYSE: DAI) closed at $59.55 Monday. DAI overall option implied volatility of 35 is near its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Ford (NYSE: F) closed at $4.89 Monday. F overall option implied volatility of 78 is above its 26-week average of 69 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) closed at $10.36 Monday. GM September call option implied volatility is at 87, puts are at 103; above its 26-week average of 72, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Honda (NYSE: HMC) closed at $33.42 Monday. HMC over all option implied volatility of 33 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional risk.

Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM) closed at $90.75 Monday. TM overall option implied volatility of 29 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Broadcom (BRCM) lifted by Barron's coverage

BRCM logoBroadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM - option chain) shares are moving higher today after an article in Barron's over the weekend said the stock could rise as much as 40 percent as the chipmaker enters the market for smartphones. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on BRCM.

BRCM opened this morning at $28.23. So far today the stock has hit a low of $27.76 and a high of $28.39. As of 12:20, BRCM is trading at $27.86, up 40 cents(1.5%). The chart for BRCM looks bullish and S&P gives BRCM a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bull-put credit spread below the $20 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in just three months as long as BRCM is above $20 at November expiration. Broadcom would have to fall by more than 27% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

BRCM hasn't been below $20 since April and has shown support around $23 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in BRCM.

Option Update: Retailers volatility flat into EPS & outlook

Target (NYSE: TGT) is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on August 19. TGT September & October option implied volatility of 43 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Gap (NYSE: GPS) is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on August 21. GPS September option implied volatility of 47 is near its 26-week average of 43, suggesting slightly larger price movement.

Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) is scheduled to report Q2 EPS after the market close on August 20. LTD September option implied volatility of 51 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

SunPower (SPWR) shoots higher on PG&E deal

SPWR logoSunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR - option chain) shares are soaring higher today after Pacific Gas and Electric Co. said it has chosen SPWR to supply up to 800 megawatts of renewable energy. On the news, an analyst at Merrill Lynch also upgraded SPWR to "Buy" from "Hold." If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on SPWR.

SPWR opened this morning at $87.64. So far today the stock has hit a low of $87.57 and a high of $93.93. As of 12:55, SPWR is trading at $93.26, up $14.69 (18.7%). The chart for SPWR looks neutral and S&P gives SPWR a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bull-put credit spread below the $55 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think, but willstill leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in just four months as long as SPWR is above $55 at December expiration. Sunpower would have to fall by more than 40% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

SPWR hasn't been below $55 since March and has shown support around $71 recently. With the way the political climate is shaping up, it looks like some form of solar power should be here for quite a while.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in SPWR.

Option Update: Volatility for stocks with exposure to lower commodity prices

Anglogold (NYSE: AU) closed at $27.47 Thursday. Gold is recently down 3.11% to $789.20 according to Bloomberg. AU September option implied volatility of 51 is above its 26-week average of 43 according to Track Data, suggesting larger movement.

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) closed at $33.93 Thursday. Crude oil futures are recently down 1.64% to $113.37. VLO September option implied volatility of 53 is above its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Southern Peru Copper (NYSE: PCU) closed at $24 Thursday. Copper is recently down 3.80% to 326 according to Bloomberg. PCU September option implied volatility of 53 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Archer Daniels (NYSE: ADM) closed at $26.62 Thursday. Corn futures are recently down 3.38% to 557.75, Soybean futures are down 2.59% to 1241 according to Track Data. ADM September option implied volatility of 44 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Nordstrom and Red Robin volatility up into EPS

Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) is expected to report Q2 EPS today after the market close. JWN August 30 straddle is priced at $2.90, September 30 is at $4.40. JWN September option implied volatility of 58 is above its 26-week average of 52 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Red Robin Gourmet (NASDAQ: RRGB) is scheduled to report Q2 EPS today. RRGB August 30 straddle is priced at $2.60, September is at $5.15. RRGB September option implied volatility of 64 is above its 26-week average of 52 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Heelys (NASDAQ: HLYS) is recently up 68 cents to $5.55 in pre-open trading. Skechers (NYSE: SKX) made an acquisition proposal to acquire HLYS for $5.25 per share ($142 million) in cash. HLYS, wheel-in-the-heel footwear marketer, closed at closed at $4.87. HLYS traded at a record high of $40.09 in February 2007. HLYS over all option implied volatility of 77 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Dr. Pepper Snapple (DPS) soars as earnings beat estimates

DPS logoDr. Pepper Snapple Group (NYSE: DPS - option chain) shares are flying higher today after the company reported this morning earnings that beat expectations by 5 cents and set its full-year forecast about 3 cents higher than previous analyst estimates. Even if consumers are spending less, it seems that charging $1.50 for two liters of soda that cost only a few cents to produce is still a good business model. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on DPS.

DPS opened this morning at $22.21. So far today the stock has hit a low of $22.12 and a high of $23.77. As of 12:45, DPS is trading at $22.94, up $1.28 (5.9%). The chart for DPS looks neutral, but improving.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bull-put credit spread below the $20 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 16.3% return in just three and a half months as long as DPS is above $20 at November expiration. DPS would have to fall by more than 12% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Dr. Pepper Snapple (DPS) soars as earnings beat estimates

Option Update: Longs Drug volume & volatility up into CVS's buyout

CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS) announced the acquisition Longs Drug Stores (NYSE: LDG) for $71.50 per share in cash. LDG closed at $54.04.

Pershing Square filed a 13D on August 5 indicating an ownership of 8.8% of LDG. LDG was expected to report Q2 EPS in mid-August.

LDG option volume was heavy over the last seven trading days. LDG August 55 straddle closed at $2.55, September 55 straddle was at $7.30. LDG September option implied volatility of 51 is above its 26-week average of 43 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

CVS closed at $38.05. Jefferies says: "We believe CVS/Caremark's unique competitive position; substantial revenue/EPS upside opportunity, and still modest valuation should lead to significant equity appreciation."

CVS September option implied volatility of 28 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM) rises on favorable USDA corn report

ADM logoArcher-Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM - option chain) shares are rising today after the Department of Agriculture lifted its corn production estimates and lowered its corn price estimates. The news is good for ADM since the company is a huge consumer of corn. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ADM.

ADM opened this morning at $26.34. So far today the stock has hit a low of $26.04 and a high of $27.25. As of 12:30, ADM is trading at $27.09, up $0.75 (2.8%). The chart for ADM looks bullish and S&P gives ADM a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bull-put credit spread below the $22.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 22.0% return in just four months as long as HANS is above $22.50 at September expiration. ADM would have to fall by more than 16% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM) rises on favorable USDA corn report

Option Update: LDK Solar September call volatility at 35 into positive EPS & outlook

LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) is recently trading at $40.25 in pre-open trading, above its close of $33.58. LDK reported Q2 revenue of $441.7 million, up 89.2% quarter-over-quarter. ThinkEquity says: "The shares of LDK offer significant upside, with its impending polysilicon production, which should lower the company's cost structure significantly." LDK August 35 straddle is priced at $3.95. LDK September call option implied volatility is at 74, puts are at 85; near its 26-week average according to Track Data. LDK puts are priced higher than calls because LDK is difficult to borrow.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) closed at $18.46 Monday. AMAT is scheduled to report Q3 EPS after the market close today. Kaufman Bros says: "We reiterate our Hold and $19 price target." AMAT August straddle 18 is priced at $1.10, September is at $1.90. AMAT September option implied volatility of 36 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional movement after EPS.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

SYSCO (SYY) Q4 earnings impress

SYY logoSYSCO (NYSE: SYY - option chain) shares are soaring higher today after the company reported a fourth-quarter profit of $334.1 million, or 55 cents per share, beating analysts' estimates of 52 cents per share(see more of today's earnings news). It turns out that low-cost, bulk food products are still in high demand, especially at a time when consumers pocketbooks are feeling the pinch, so fancier fare may be out of the question. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on SYY.

SYY opened this morning at $30.29. So far today the stock has hit a low of $29.50 and a high of $31.47. As of 12:30, SYY is trading at $31.21, up $1.34 (4.5%). The chart for SYY looks neutral and S&P gives SYY a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bull-put credit spread below the $27.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in just three and a half months as long as SYY is above $27.50 at November expiration. SYSCO would have to fall by more than 11% before we would start to lose money.

SYY hasn't been below $27.50 for more than a few days in the past year and has shown support around $28.50 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in SYY.

Option Update: Oil pullback affecting international oil companies' volatilities

PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) closed at $132.04 Friday. WTI Crude Futures are recently up 1.03% to $116.39 according to Bloomberg. PTR over all option implied volatility of 40 is below its 26-week average of 46 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing movement.

CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO) closed at $133.78 Friday. CEO overall option implied volatility of 43 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.


Canadian Natural (NYSE: CNQ), an oil and natural gas production company, closed at $72.72 Friday. CNQ September option implied volatility of 54 is above its 26-week average of 45, suggesting larger price movement.


Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Hansen Natural (HANS) lifts on energy drink earnings

http://investors.hansens.com/Hansen Natural (NASDAQ: HANS - option chain) shares are soaring higher today after the company reported yesterday evening its second quarter profit jumped to 31 percent to $50.2 million on sales of its Monster energy drink. Despite missing estimates by a penny, the growth numbers and decreasing operational expenses are encouraging investors. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on HANS.

HANS opened this morning at $21.43. So far today the stock has hit a low of $20.67 and a high of $23.42. As of 12:55, HANS is trading at $23.42, up 1.77 (8.2%). The chart for HANS looks bearish and steady.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns.

For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in just six weeks as long as HANS is above $17.50 at September expiration. Hansen would have to fall by more than 25% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

HANS hasn't been below $20 at all in the past year and has shown support around $21.50 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in HANS.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-42.3411,306.21
NASDAQ-4.082,380.28
S&P 500-3.841,262.85

Last updated: August 20, 2008: 10:11 AM

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