If we keep hearing about companies that are "too big to fail" what in the world are we doing allowing Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) to swallow up everything in their financial path so that they can become even bigger, potentially creating the next catastrophe!
During my tenure at BloggingStocks I have made some bonehead calls and some that were more astute. Among my better calls was the story I wrote 20 months ago, Break up Citigroup as soon as possible, and the follow on story a year later when nothing had changed: Citigroup should hire forensic auditors. My colleagues Peter Cohan and Douglas McIntyre made similar points.
Given these stories and the dialog I have had with many of our intelligent and equally frustrated readers, I have had thoughts of starting a non-profit organization to shadow the Securities and Exchange Commission that has been dormant for the last ten years. Instead of hiring Wall Street types to run the SEC we might do better hiring inquisitive university students, and not from the business or law schools, but the accounting, journalism and criminology programs.
Since the stock market is down so much I have been buying something in the fourth quarter almost every week. I have been patient and have been expanding my watch list. The difficulty for me is that I feel like almost everything is on sale -- but iseverything a bargain?
Maybe not; maybe I'm delusional. Perhaps that is because I am tuned into another time and place when I would have been dancing in the streets if I were able to acquire Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK) or General Electric (NYSE: GE) for pennies on the dollar. Maybe that is all these stocks are worth? That is what Wall Street currently thinks. That is what Main Street currently thinks. There is a lot more bad news than good.
Then why is Warren Buffett buying, and Carl Icahn and Ken Heebner? After all, I'm just following in their shadows.
The reason is that most investors are simply focused on all the bad news. That is what has most folks' attention and that is making the market -- bankruptcies, billions of dollars in losses, government out of control, Wall Street out of control and more. There is also serious fear things will get worse. If you lost money in the stock market (all of us), or lost your job or your house or any combination of the above, then things look bleak and for now they are. However, we should not be investing for now; we should be investing for the future.
Consider the following elements that support a recovery in the next year. I do not mean a boom, just a recovery -- just a more positive investing environment.
1) By spring it is estimated the government will have poured $2 trillion dollars into an economy of $13 trillion over a 12-month period. Not only is this a market stimulus, but it may prove to be highly inflationary, and if so equities are a better place to be then cash.
Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE: BBY) is slicing $10 off the price of the 8GB Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone 3G, cutting its price to $189.99 through January 3rd. In addition, the 16GB version of the iPhone will drop to $289.99 as well. Wow! A measly $10 off a new iPhone! Stop the presses!
Best Buy's Scott Moore indicated that "we thought this would be a way to help customers right now." What a generous gift, yes? Truth be told, it's Apple who dictates to its retailer partners the prices they can sell Apple goods. This is why you'll see almost the exact same price for any Apple product no matter where you purchase it.
But, if Best Buy thinks whacking $10 off the price of an already-overpriced piece of hardware is doing customers a favor, something's in the food in Richfield. And, a $30 "setup fee" for the iPhone? What kind of nonsense is that? At least this fee is being waived along with this huge price reduction. Since Best Buy gives a free "walking out working" setup to all the other cellphones it sells, why on earth is there a $30 fee to setup the iPhone -- which is heralded as one of the easiest phones to setup anyway?
It's no secret that Best Buy has been hurt by the holiday season retail sales slowdown -- it has said as much -- but I'm not sure this is any way to help that situation. That is, unless customers are expected to line up to save the cost of a single movie ticket to a device that locks them into more than $1,600 in calling and data plan contract fees over a 24-month period. What a mark that $10 will have, yes? If Apple and Best Buy really want to "help out" more customers, it sure needs to be more than a measly $10 pittance.
The New York Times has reported: The last Chevrolet Tahoe rolled off the line here in Janesville shortly after 7 a.m. in the 90-year-old plant, which had built more than 3.7 million big S.U.V.'s since the early 1990s. While the overall new vehicle market has dropped 16 percent so far this year, sales of big S.U.V.'s have plummeted 40 percent. Their closings leave the Big Three with only one factory each still devoted to making traditional big S.U.V.'s - Ford Motor (NYSE: F) in Kentucky, General Motors (NYSE: GM) in Texas, and Chrysler in Detroit.
The car manufacturers have been hit hard by tight consumer credit, the high cost of fuel and an overall slowing of the economy. All three manufacturers have been pleading with Congress and the White House for financial support and with the UAW for contract concessions. After Two of the three (Congress and UAW) failed to act, President Bush stepped in to provide an aid package of $17 billion to get the auto companies through the first quarter of 2009.
Despite the rescue package finally coming through Wall Street has not been impressed. The stocks of GM (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F) are down 35% since the announcement. Ford closed yesterday at $2.19, down-0.40, losing -15.44% in one day. GM closed at $3.00, down-0.52, losing-14.77%.
Can either of these companies avoid bankruptcy if they cannot stay off the pink sheets? Is bankruptcy inevitable? Are you buying these stocks with hopes of a recovery?
If there could be a more cruel joke played on the downtrodden American middle class this year, I don't know what it could be. Battered by high gas prices and a punishing mortgage climate in which millions lost their homes, at the end of the year, many were laid off. Desperate in a period of high unemployment, millions are turning to their 401(k) plan for emergency funds. And that's where the true emergency is.
My 401(k) lost about 40% of its value in only a few terrible months this summer and fall. I didn't have much to lose; I'm only a drop in a trillion-dollar bucket, with losses in the NYSE alone at $8.6 trillion for the year. In January 2008, the NYSE opened at 9,647 points, a value of $19.7 trillion. By mid-December, the NYSE was hovering around 5,500 points, a value of $11.1 trillion, an enormous 43.7% decline.
Taking an early distribution from my 401(k) due to a period of depressed income (I'm now a freelance writer and not an "employee," a title so imbued with special status in our society), I had to laugh at the automatic calculator that the Fidelity Net Benefits system makes you undergo in order to request a distribution, showing me how much I would be losing from my retirement income. If only someone could have made me go through this little exercise when I was responsibly socking away cash in stock index funds -- "this is how much retirement money you can lose if you trust in the American economy!" -- perhaps I'd have saved the time to log into Fidelity and just stuck the money in savings instead. I had to laugh -- so I didn't cry.
Trillions of dollars have been introduced into the world economy since last July, when I thought it would be interesting to jump in and pick stocks prior to the carnage in the financial sector taking complete hold.
For the past eight months our government has been taking over financial institutions, absorbing debt, lowering interest rates, nationalizing some private companies, investing in others, and rebating taxes through stimulus packages to increase liquidity and spending. The Federal Reserve has essentially dropped the interest to zero.
The government was the last to announce that we are in a recession. Well, duh! However, recession or not the world is still open for business although less of it. Gold is down 30% from it's highs and oil having totally collapsed from $147 a barrel at the time of the original story to the low $30's now.
Eight of the ten financial stocks I wrote about are down or out at this point. When I last reported, the portfolio was losing 47% but it has sunk to new lows now standing at a loss of 58.56%. This compares to a drop in the S&P 500 of 29% or half the loss.
There are many analysts suggesting that we finally have arrived at the time to invest in financial stocks. Perhaps that is true, but do you invest in the downtrodden or the blue chips?
A spokesman for JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) Thomas Kelly said his firm has not disclosed what it did with the $25 billion in emergency bailout money it has received. In fact, JPMorgan Chase is declining to provide any such disclosure.
AP has reported that none of the 21 banks that received $1 billion or more from taxpayers is tracking, or at least willing to disclose how they are using the money. Let me be clear -- THIS STINKS TO THE HIGH HEAVENS!
What kind of deals did Treasury Secretary Paulson make with these favored financial institutions? The money would be very easy to track. Why wouldn't that be a part of the bargain?
Paulson obviously did not read Conservative bankers? Surely you jest!, but he should have. Of course, having former Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) CEO Paulson negotiate with his Wall Street buddies on behalf of the taxpayer is highly suspect. At a minimum we have the good 'ol boy network operating in full form.
The banks simply are avoiding what should be required scrutiny by pleading ignorance. I don't believe the money can't be tracked, or even traced now after the fact. What happened to the idea of more transparency? More cover up I fear!
The banks should be subject to full disclosure. The use of the funds should be subject to review. Government money should be subject to the Freedom of Information Act. Why all the secrecy?
PS: Personal emails I have been receiving and the initial comments indicate strong sentiment about this issue. I encourage those that care to forward this story to their elected officials and friends encouraging full disclosure -- as promised! Obama used the internet to help win the White House, lets use it to get someone to listen with an internet blast from all over the country!
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture and planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.
It occurred to me while responding to a comment in my Chasing Value column that there are some basic necessities in life that we do not normally think of as such. The discussion had to do with finding those intrinsic or basic things a company (stock) produces that might reduce investor risk or help establish basic value.
Food and water clearly matter to everyone, and you could add energy, but until the economy freezes up like it has the past year, you might not appreciate the importance of credit.
The single biggest reason that car dealers say they cannot move anything off the lot is a lack of consumer credit. People have tapped out their credit cards and home equity lines, and probably their friends and family by now -- so it is all pay as you go. The going is rough and the going is slow.
The Federal Reserve has now reduced the overnight rate to nothing in an effort to get financial institutions to free up some of their capital and to lend to each other. They have also been trying to push mortgage rates down. They were successful in doing so because many lenders have offered me rates under 5% for 30-year fixed mortgages just this past week.
The banks are still not lending and I hear every excuse in the book. I accept the fact that lending practices are much more restrictive than they have been in the recent past. I also understand that banks are trying to conserve capital against volatile and unpredictable market gyrations. However, the pendulum has swung too far to the conservative side.
Here is a recent example from a deal I was able to get done but it took three times as long as it should have. First the appraisal by my estimation was 10% to 15% low -- no one is sticking their neck out. I know this because I am seeing weekly transactions in the neighborhood. Then the maximum loan to value has gone from the ridiculous 100%, which no sane person should have done, to 70%, the bank in this case Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC), said it was because it wanted to maintain its AAA rating.
Another bit of pain. After I had everything in place, in the case of a home loan, subordination became an issue! Things are so specialized and compartmentalized that the lender has different underwriters and standards for its First Trust Deeds and its Home Equity loans and since I had both, the HELOC (a form of second mortgage) had to be subordinated to the First.
When you hear about the outrageous accusations against Wall Street icon, now shamed, Bernard Maddoff, regarding his $50 billion Ponzi scheme and the corrupt thinking Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich and his peddling of Obama's Senate seat, it almost makes you want to bring back the firing squad because their offenses are almost treasonous.
Are we not in the midst of a financial battle of historic proportion? If the charges against them hold true, have they not destroyed the lives of thousands of people, not to mention the integrity of both the political and financial systems at a time when our nation is in crises?
Unfortunately, as they used to quip in another time; "hanging is too good for them!"
I have another solution for them and all white collar criminals doing soft time, even if it is a long time, PUT THEM TO WORK!
The American auto industry failure is no joke. There is no consensus regarding a solution and the stakes are very high for all of us. We cannot really fathom the complete repercussions from whatever approach we take to resolve this very difficult situation involving General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F), privately held Chrysler and the UAW.
There is still no resolution to the gargantuan task of re-working the U.S. automobile industry. The White House this past weekend said that while the administration is trying to work out various scenarios to rescue the ailing industry, it has not come up with a solution yet and the people involved don't expect to make any announcements for a few days.
I have been following the news about the auto industry like the rest of the nation and I have been writing about many of the issues that we face. Yesterday, I added a bit of irony Sunday Funnies: Feds could buy GM & Ford, but this is no laughing matter.
Barack Obama became the king of fund raising in 2008, having received a record amount in donations for his presidential campaign in the neighborhood of $750 million, and finishing with over $100 million in the bank. These contributions factored into a winning, grass-roots campaign strategy.
Actually he used a two-prong approach that enabled him to tap into the existing Democratic fund-raising machine attracting large donors through various traditional means, such as banquets and A-list parties. At the same time he was able to play the role of outsider and underdog to rally his grass-roots support among the young and commonly disenfranchised, handshake by handshake, and through a very adept use of the internet. The internet provided a constant source of connectivity with his followers, and allowed his team to respond to any news item with immediacy.
Now, president-elect Obama will be hoping to continue to amaze as he is tasked with guiding a devastated economy on the brink of collapse back to some semblance of equilibrium.
In a high stakes game of chicken this past week, the Senate GOP and UAW leadership could not agree on setting a date certain for cutting members wages and the hard-line senators would not accept anything less. (See Auto 'support fund': Senate & UAW clash.)
One of the ironies of the proposed, and not passed, Federal bailout, or support fund, as I have begun to call it, depending on your point of view, is that the proposed $14 billion is more than the value Wall Street currently places on the two companies.
General Motors (NYSE: GM) closed Friday at $3.94, down $0.18 or 4.37%, with a capitalization of $2.4 billion. Ford (NYSE: F) closed at $3.04, up $0.14 or4.83%, with a capitalization of $7.04 billion. The combined value therefore is $9.44 billion; yes folks, another Washington bargain!
While world markets sank on the news of the failed talks, U.S. investors yawned and were unimpressed with activity in foreign markets -- all three of the major indices ended up for the day. Perhaps that's because temporarily propping up the two companies by spending more than they're worth made no sense to anyone outside Washington D.C. or Detroit.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture and planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own shares of GM or Ford.
2008 was Tina Fey's year as the award-winning TV star, writer, and creator of 30 Rock, then completing her first hit movie Baby Mama, followed by a return as SNL's Sarah Palin. Fey is now one of the most sought after people in Hollywood.
Evidence of this can be found in the recent Barbara Walters interview listing her as one of the ten most interesting people of the year as well as the current issue of Vanity Fair.
Sarah Palin was a gold mine for political pundits, tabloids, and comedians alike during her run as the vice presidential sidekick of John McCain, but to none more than Tina Fey, the seven-time Emmy award-winning star and writer. Fey's satiric renditions of Palin brought more publicity to both women then either of them could have hoped for.
Well yesterday's operative word was "might" as in the congress might pass a bill to support the auto industry and prevent the potential bankruptcy of General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F) and privately held Chrysler. Things have changed and for now might has become won't -- as in nothing doing!
Republicans in the Senate clashed with the UAW, Democrats and the White House over a thinly viable plan to provide a $14 billion aid package to forestall industry collapse and give all sides the opportunity to improve a bad situation in the first quarter of 2009 under certain conditions.
The breaking point was the UAW's refusal to agree to immediate wage cuts. While headlines pronounce the deal dead, I say let's wait and see. After all this is Washington, DC, where any reasonable facsimile of the truth has a high probability of being posturing and pretending.